How many private-credit stress signals are tracked?

98 total signals are tracked, of which 74 are high-severity, with 11 fraud cases and 8 redemption gates. The bankruptcy timeline tallies $199.9 billion of debt destroyed across 72 filings.

Stress signals

The Crack Tracker

Q: What is the current BDC default rate?

As of February 2026, Fitch reported the BDC default rate at 5.8% — the highest since tracking began. Moody's cited 7.5% and Marathon warned software-loan defaults could reach 15%.

A source-linked feed of stress events across PE/PC — defaults, PIK/amendments, NAV revisions, redemption gates, dividend cuts, regulatory actions, and fraud.

total signals

high-severity

fraud cases

redemption gates

The short answer

The cracks are no longer hypothetical. The bankruptcy timeline tallies $199.9B of debt destroyed across 72 filings (avg $2.8B each), retail the most common sector. Meanwhile redemption gates, NAV revisions, and rising default rates are clustering in 2025–2026 — even as regulators pull back oversight.

PE-backed defaults timeline

$199.9B

debt destroyed across 72 bankruptcies

$2.8B

average per filing

retail cases — the most common sector

The timeline runs from Claire's and Linens 'n Things (2007–08) through TXU (2014) to a 2025–26 cluster including Zips Car Wash, Eddie Bauer, and Forever 21.

Recent high-severity signals (2026)

Selected 2026 stress signals
Date	Category	Signal
2026-03-11	Redemption	CCLFX redemptions hit 14% — investors trapped behind a 5% gate
2026-03-10	Default	Pimco: private credit faces a "full-blown default cycle"
2026-03-03	Default	Apollo CEO Rowan: shakeout "foreseeable, predictable"
2026-03-02	Redemption	BCRED: record 7.9% ($3.8B) redeemed; employees inject $400M
2026-02-27	Default	Fitch: BDC default rate hits 5.8% — highest since tracking began
2026-02-26	Default	Marathon warns software-loan defaults could hit 15%
2026-02-24	Redemption	Blue Owl stock plunges 50% from high on software exposure
2026-02-18	Redemption	OBDC II permanently halts all redemptions

The regulatory thread runs the other way: the OCC/FDIC rescinded the 2013 Leveraged Lending Guidance (Dec 2025) and SEC enforcement hit a decade low (313 actions, −27% YoY) — even as the Fed, Boston Fed, IMF, BIS, and Senators Warren and Reed flagged private credit as a systemic risk.

Frequently asked questions

How many stress signals are tracked?

98 total — 74 high-severity, 11 fraud, 8 redemption gates. The bankruptcy timeline tallies $199.9B across 72 filings.

What is the current BDC default rate?

Fitch put it at 5.8% (Feb 2026) — highest since tracking began. Moody's cited 7.5%; Marathon warned software defaults could hit 15%.